Probably Physics Probabilities in Physics A Nexus mindmap Probabilistic intuition 0 weeks.nex 1 Introduction 0 Aristotle 0 Propositions 1 Implication 2 Boolean logic 3 Deductive reasoning I 0 Knowlege base 0 Deductive engine 1 Worlds 2 Implication networks 3 Skipped in 2020 0 0 4 Deductive reasoning II 1 Deductive 0 Plausibility 0 Desiderata 1 Product rule 2 Plausibility reasoning I 0 Limits 0 Sum rule 1 Probability as extended logic 2 Plausibility reasoning II 1 Plausibility 1 Reasoning 1 Bayes' rule 0 Chaining 1 BR Exercises 2 Some consequences of the product rule 3 Bayes' rule 1 Marginalisation 0 Some consequences of the sum rule 1 Marginalisation 0 Comparing models against each other 0 A basic task 2 Model selection 3 Max-likelihood and least squares 0 PE Exercises 1 A basic task 2 Parameter estimation 5 Tossing a coin 1 Discrete 2 Continuous 3 Numbers that summarise a distribution 0 moment generating function 1 Moments 0 (skipped in 2016/2018) 0 Distributions 8 Notation 4 Assigning numbers 2 Summarising 7 Priors 6 Bayesian inference 2 Kangaroo problem 0 Monkey argument 1 Maximum Entropy 0 understanding entropy 0 Applying maximum entropy 1 Uncertainty 1 Historical sketch 0 Maximum entropy of generalised mean constrainst 1 Canonical distribution 2 Grand canonical distribution 3 Statistical Mechanics 2 Maximum entropy 3 Independence 0 Probabilities to graphs 1 Information flow 2 Bayesian networks 4 Information 0 Data compression 1 Joint Entropy and Conditional Entropy 2 Communication 4 Relative Entropy and Mutual Information 3 Information Theory 5 Probably Physics Probabilities in Physics