Bayesian Inference EQuS Winter School 2016 Alexei Gilchrist A Nexus mindmap 0 Introduction 0 Logic 1 Plausibility 2 Desiderata 3 Product rule 4 Sum rule 5 Probability as extended logic 0 Plausibility reasoning 1 Foundations of probability 2 Probability theory is nothing but common sense reduced to calculus Laplace, 1819 1 Foundations 0 Marginalisation 1 Variables 2 Some consequences of the sum rule 0 Marginalisation 0 Bayes' rule 1 Chaining 2 Some consequences of the product rule 1 Bayes' rule 2 Assigning numbers 0 Expectation 1 Numbers that summarise a distribution 3 Moments 2 Basics 0 Probabilities to graphs 1 Information flow 3 Bayesian networks 0 Model selection 1 Parameter estimation 4 Basic tasks 0 Monty Hall revisited 5 Monty Hall again 0 Least squares solution 1 Unknown y-uncertainty 2 Outliers 3 x and y uncertainties 6 Fitting a line 7 Maximum Entropy Bayesian Inference EQuS Winter School 2016 Alexei Gilchrist