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Bayesian Inference EQuS Winter School 2016 Alexei Gilchrist
A Nexus mindmap
0
Introduction
0
Logic
1
Plausibility
2
Desiderata
3
Product rule
4
Sum rule
5
Probability as extended logic
0
Plausibility reasoning
1
Foundations of
probability
2
Probability theory is nothing but
common sense reduced to calculus
Laplace, 1819
1
Foundations
0
Marginalisation
1
Variables
2
Some consequences
of the sum rule
0
Marginalisation
0
Bayes' rule
1
Chaining
2
Some consequences
of the product rule
1
Bayes' rule
2
Assigning numbers
0
Expectation
1
Numbers that
summarise a
distribution
3
Moments
2
Basics
0
Probabilities to graphs
1
Information flow
3
Bayesian networks
0
Model selection
1
Parameter estimation
4
Basic tasks
0
Monty Hall revisited
5
Monty Hall again
0
Least squares solution
1
Unknown y-uncertainty
2
Outliers
3
x and y uncertainties
6
Fitting a line
7
Maximum Entropy
Bayesian Inference
EQuS Winter School
2016
Alexei Gilchrist